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How to Correctly Analyze 100-Year Threats for Risk Assessments

Starting a risk assessment in northern Virginia and going through the threat list they say, “You can take earthquakes out – we don’t have earthquakes here”!

Hey, Haiti didn’t have earthquakes!

Vermont didn’t have major floods!

Connecticut doesn’t have tornados!

Like Murphy’s Law, as soon as you discount a threat, and think, “it will never happen here”, it happens!   The earthquake in the mid-Atlantic in August was a wake-up call for those who that they would never have earthquake damage.

One of the reasons that security risk assessment is so highly valued as an analytical took, and why it’s required by so many governments is because it DOES take into account the 100-year flood, the 75-year drought, etc.

Natural disasters can be so overwhelming, and catastrophic, that they must be considered in any proper risk assessment.  This is why some areas are not suitable for building housing tracts, because they are in a 100-year flood plan.

Because human memories are short, just because YOU haven’t experience a flood
along a meandering creek, doesn’t mean it will never happen.  

Always check the long-term probabilities when you start a risk assessment and make the numbers work for you!



Remembering the Tragedy of 9/11

Today is the 10th Anniversary of 9/11.  Like most other Americans, like the Kennedy assassination so many years ago, the memories are indelibly burned into my soul.

On September 11, I was flying to a conference in Chicago, so I got up at 5 am to catch the 7:45 plane from BWI to Pittsburgh.  I was on the next plane to Chicago and it boarded at 9:35 and pushed out onto the runway.  I was waiting for it to take off when my cell phone rang and it was my son, Michael, who said, “They flew a plane into the Twins Towers in NYC”.   As a security professional, I knew what that meant.

After a confusing 15 minutes, the plane went back to the gate, and they told us the flight would be delayed for 6 hours, but as we walked off the plane, the man next to me got a call on his cell and said, “They hit the Pentagon”.

There was a hotel at the Pittsburgh Airport so I immediately ran over there and checked in because I knew there would be no planes leaving today, I noticed the huge crowd at the bar, watching the TV.   My brother worked in NYC, my sons and friends were in DC, so the phone lines weren’t working, but I signed on to AOL and was able to connect with them to say I was all right.  

They evacuated the airport, but I was up in my mini command center by then.  I must have gotten 400 emails that day and I was watching the coverage on TV and crying, and then I heard about United Flight 93.

It took me about 2 days to get home.  A friend DROVE from the conference in Chicago to Pittsburgh and picked me up at midnight on 9/11.  We drove together through the Appalachian mountains to her home south of Philadelphia.  She had small children and wanted to get home fast.

We arrived at about 9 am on 9/12, after driving all night.  I slept for 4 hours on her son’s bed, and then her husband took me to the Amtrak station at Wilmington and I took the train back to BWI. It felt like I was moving through a bad dream.

Next, I tried to get my car, which was in the parking structure by the terminal, but it was blocked and they said I wouldn’t be able to get my cars for several more days, so I took a cab back home.

I remember driving up my street and seeing the American flags on houses, and I remember thinking about why I didn’t know all these neighbors and how I would change that in the future.  I remember how blue the sky was, not a cloud, not a plane.  It was surrealistically quiet.

I know several people who were killed in the Pentagon, and many in NYC who were dramatically affected, including the children in the NY suburbs who got called out of class one by one, to hear that their father, or mother was gone.

My theory is that people who lived on the west coast didn’t feel the impact quite as much as we did – who had been to the Pentagon every week, and been in the Twin Towers.

A friend of mine in San Diego who was proud of not having a TV, and who got up early that morning to order a sheet set on QVC.  She was in the middle of her order when the operator started crying and could not continue – she kept telling Kathy, “please turn on the TV and call back tomorrow”.

Just for me, I think I am permanently damaged by what happened on 9/11, and I think the whole country shares a continuing sorrow and grief from this event. 

We won’t let it happen again.



AT RISK – YOUR HEALTH – Check out the antidote for overweight Baby Boomers – The Juice Reboot solution featured in new movie, ‘Fat, Sick & Nearly Dead”. It convinced me!

Fat Sick And Nearly Dead: A Movie Review from Dr. Whimsey

Recently, I watched the movie “Fat, Sick, and Nearly Dead,” available on Netflix. The film chronicles the real life adventure of Joe Cross, an entrepreneur from Australia, who decides to go on a 60 day juice fast. Cross had a series of medical conditions that included obesity, and an autoimmune disease commonly referred to as “Chronic Idiopathic Urticaria.”Cross’s decision to go on a juice fast, is based on the idea that his lifestyle choices made him sick. In fact, many healthcare providers now believe that much of America’s epidemic of obesity and chronic disease have more to do with diet and lifestyle choices than anything else.

The film was shot in the United States, and depicts Cross traveling across the country asking people about health and diet, while discussing the current medical epidemic of obesity and chronic disease that has lead to Americans consuming more prescription drugs than any other nation on earth. Along the way Cross meets a truck driver named “Phil,” Phil is 425 pounds and suffering from the same debilitating disease. Phil decides to go on his own juice fast and not only recovers his health but looses close to 200 pounds (for his part, Cross lost around 90 pounds during his fast).

This film is amazingly inspirational, and I highly recommend people watch it. Not just because it demonstrates how diet and exercise can cure disease, but because it addresses, what I have come to believe, are gaping holes in our current healthcare system. Mainly, the lack of emphasis we have placed on diet and lifestyle changes to cure disease in this country, and have opted instead for the “quick fix,” medications can offer instead.

The film maker argues that juicing is better than eating foods raw because it would take far too many fruits and veggies to equal the amount of nutrients found in a single glass of juice. Therefore, in order to maximize the amount of micronutrients available in vegetables it is better to juice them.

This is not a perfect film. I am not a huge proponent of a juice only fast. One of the main reasons I don’t like this type of fast is because it eliminates fiber from the diet. Fiber is vital to our health for a number of reasons. For starters, fiber bulks up our stool helping us to have healthier and more frequent bowel movements (preventing constipation, and decreasing our risk of diverticulitis and polyps). Fiber is also thought to reduce our risk of colon cancer and type II diabetes. Fiber also helps keep our blood sugar stable. It does this by slowing down how quickly sugar can enter the blood stream; preventing the elevated levels you can sometimes get from consuming high sugar content food items like soda pop and white bread.

Instead of the juice only diet seen in this film, I advice people to do both a juice fast combined with nutrient dense foods like plenty of raw veggies, brown rice, and beans. This keeps the blood sugar stable during the fast, while still gaining all of the added benefits of taking in nutrient dense juices.

Like every article we write on Anderson Health Watch, we always want you to ask your doctor before starting any diet or exercise regime to see if it is right for you.

 

See the original Dr. Whimsey review at:

http://andersonhealthwatch.blogspot.com/2011/07/fat-sick-and-nearly-dead-movie-review.html



Did you know that Organized Crime now Runs Most Identity Theft rings and That They Already Have Your Personal CC Information?

A recent CNNMoney article looks at why cybercrime has gotten so pervasive and concluded that you have probably already been hacked!

Cybercrime and theft of personal identity elements like credit cards, bank accounts, passwords, etc. has moved from a kitchen industry populated by techy college students in countries like Bulgaria and Romania, to a dependable source of income for organized crime.

Similar to the way Russian crime gangs have infiltrated the shipping-port business, identity theft has become a commodity and they are stealing BILLIONS of dollars every year, including from the world’s largest corporations like Sony and Citigroup.

According to CNN Money, “These aren’t petty thieves. They’re committing breaches like the Sony attack that stole credit card information from 77 million customers and the Citigroup hack that stole $2.7 million from about 3,400 accounts in May. They’re organized, smart, and loaded with time and resources.

“It’s not like the Mafia, it is a Mafia running these operations,” said Karim Hijazi, CEO of botnet  monitoring company Unveillance. “The Russian Mafia are the most prolific cybercriminals in the world.”

The Russian mob is incredibly talented for a reason: After the Iron Curtain lifted in the 1990s, a number of ex-KGB cyberspies realized they could use their expert skills and training to make money off of the hacked information they had previously been retrieving for government espionage purposes. Former spies grouped together to form the Russian Business Network, a criminal enterprise that is capable of some truly scary attacks. It’s just one of many organized cybercriminal organizations, but it’s one of the oldest and the largest.

“The Russians have everyone nailed cold in terms of technical ability,” said Greg Hoglund, CEO of cybersecurity company HBGary. “The Russian crime guys have a ridiculous toolkit. They’re targeting end users in many cases, so they have to be sophisticated.”

Though credit cards continue to be a source of revenue for organized crime syndicates, there’s not much money in credit card theft, so crime rings go after large corporations and sensitive information that can be sold or used for blackmail.

Globally, data breaches are expected to account for $130.1 billion in corporate losses this year, according to the Ponemon Institute. Historically, about 30% of that total cost has been direct losses attributable to the breaches, which would mean about $39 billion will stolen in 2011.



7 Hot Weather Tips for People & Pets

Seven Tips to Reduce Heat-Related Health Problems

I grew up in southern California without air conditioning!  I used to jump in the pool and sleep in wet pajamas with a fan running to stay cool. 

And don’t forget to give your pets the care they
need during hot weather!

The best defense is prevention. Here the top 8 tips for coping with hot weather.

1.  Drink more liquids (not alochol) and drink more all day, not just
     when you feel thirsty.

2.  Don’t drink alcohol or sugary drinks – they cause you to lose
     body fluid.

3.  Stay indoors in air conditioning.  If you don’t have a/c, go to
     the library or the mall.  And bring your pets into the air
     conditioning, too.

4.  Cool off with water, take a cool shower before bed.  And make
     sure pets have plenty of cool water, too, add ice to their water
     dishes.

5.   Wear white, or light-colored clothing that doesn’t absorb the heat, it will
      reduce insect bites, too.

6.   NEVER leave children or pets in a closed vehicle during the summer and
      especially during a heat wave.

7.   Reduce strenuous outdoor exercise until the heat breaks.



Risk Assessment: How about Giving Guns Back to Former Mental Patients

A recent New York Times article explained that a provision tucked in a bill to make it harder for people diagnosed with mental illness to possess firearms, actually restores the rights of mental health patients to get their firearms back. The legislation was passed after the massacre at Virginia Tech in 2007.

One of the main elements of risk assessment is a quantitative (meaning = real numbers) on what has happened in the past. Looking at 2 or 3 years of incident reports, for example, show how many times there has been an incident involving gun violence in a particular neighborhood, city or organization.

Another element is the history of a particular individual to see whether individuals with a diagnosed history of mental illness are MORE OR LESS likely to trigger (forgive the pun) – a violent incident.

If we run that scenario, we will find that individuals who previously had a violent incident with a firearm are MORE LIKELY than the standard population to have another incident.
And that especially holds true if other threat indicators are present, for example:

Termination from a Job
Romantic Difficulties
Foreclosure
Difficult Economy

There is a ‘risk multiplier’ effect that takes place that makes the risk higher. By combining different sets of threat categories with areas of weakness, we are create general predictions on the likelihood of repeated violent incidents.

Do the math – it doesn’t make sense for people with a history of mental illness to
get their guns back!



Lessons I Learned from little Caylee Anthony

Caylee Anthony and Lessons Learned

Everyone who has watched this case found it compelling and fascinating – like watching a cobra ready to strike.

This case caught my attention right in the beginning, and what a great job #Nancy Grace and HLN did in keeping the pressure on, assisting with the search in the beginning, and actually finding photos, etc.

My daughter-in-law wasn’t pregnant when this trial started, but now she and my son have 18-month old twins, and we are all watching this trial together.    I started out disliking the Anthony parents, but now that I’ve seen Cindy and George break down on the stand and now that I understand the critical role of grandparents, I have sympathy for them.

Here’s what my lessons learned include:

1.  If you are a grandparent and thinking something is wrong – don’t wait.  Who 
     cares if your child thinks you’re nuts, you are an advocate for a child too young to
     protect themselves.   Grandparents can save the lives of their grandchildren when
     young parents are overwhelmed.

2.  Lock up the swimming pool.   Whether it’s an in ground or above-ground pool – it’s
     too dangerous for children who can’t swim.  Take extraordinary steps to keep that pool
     out of reach of any children.

3.  Don’t tolerate lying from your children when they are young.  This must be a
     lesson that is taught when children are young.  Lying is not right, and not acceptable. 
     When you in your twenties, or even in high school, it’s too late.  This tragedy was
     compounded by the constant lies of Casey Anthony.

4.  Love and enjoy your children every day because life is uncertain and you may
     never get another chance to say how much you love them, and how much they add
     to your life!



Unsnarling political differences based on Type preferences

A key component of decision making is laying out all the options to make an informed decision.

Watching the angst of the political parties trying to solve the debt problem shows that they are both charging around saying their favorite rallying cries, which does not promote dialogue, but just inflames the other party.

Think of these two parties, Dems and Repubs, as made up of two TYPES of individuals.  The MBTI (Myers Briggs Type Indicator) personality test is made up of 16 distinct types of people and you can summarize and put them into two main groups – the Traditionalists and the Innovators.

See if this sounds familiar – Traditionalists like for things to stay the same, they always support the status quo.  They dislike change for change’s sake, so they don’t want to raise taxes.  They like to keep a strong sense of order so they
are often military, law enforcement, corporate titans, etc.
  They are often presidents of associations and organizations and they are great at keeping things running efficiently.

Innovators want to explore and try new things – in life AND in politics. They want to get out of Afghanistan and put in a new tax structure, and reinvent old institutions, instead of cherishing them, as the Traditionals do.

Both these groups have great contributions that they make to society – Traditionals keep things organized and running and Innovators find new, better ways of doing things.

Innovators are always searching for the next new thing so it’s so coincidence that
California has more than it’s statistical share of Innovators – they keep kept going west, and kept looking until stopped by the Pacific ocean.

Type preferences are set before you are 5 years old and indicate preferences for your entire life.  I am already seeing types emerge from watching toddlers under the age of 2.

When you understand the values of the other party, according to type preferences, you can have a more civil dialogue because you can now understand where the other side is coming from, so to speak. 

You can find out which type you are,  or just find out more about the MBTI at www.myersbriggs.org.



Arming the Office – What Happens When We Let Employees Bring Guns to Work

One of my colleagues wrote to me so passionately about the terrible gun violence he witnesses every day, that I wanted to share it with all of you.  You can call it a ‘Guest Blog’ from the Field — a Hospital Security Director in a Major U.S. City.

The gun lobby had several recent legal “wins” for the gun rights advocates in Texas, Indiana, and Tennessee.   Apparently lawmakers and gun rights advocates find it a sane and reasonable  policy to open up the workplace to armed employees.

It t is also clear that our lawmakers are not satisfied with our current national gun carnage. Currently, we shoot to death about a 100 people a day in the United States, including 25 children killed every three days.  And this tally accounts for only those killed by guns.

This doesn’t include all those I see on a daily basis who are shot, crippled, maimed and ruined by the daily shooting gallery in the USA.   In order to continue to make money and sell more guns, the gun rights advocates, and  the legislators they have paid off, corrupted and stripped of reason,  are intent on even greater carnage and human tragedy.

Every day I witness the extreme becoming mainstream, and even commonplace.  
Guns are now finding their way into the workplace, brought into churches, brought into our colleges and universities. They are brought to hospitals, and shot off over highway bridges.

The logic is totally missing.  We are already a nation awash in fear and loathing.  We hate people  we don’t know and don’t understand.  The answer to this problem is NOT to arm EVEN MORE people and have guns readily available to everyone.

Obviously, the recent horrors of Arizona and the slaughter of innocent people in a Safeway parking lot,  has already been forgotten by security professionals and criminologists.  There is no condemnation or follow up  about a terminally troubled young man and the ease in which he purchased a semi-automatic pistol and 30 shot clips.

There has been no rallying cry to address the ease in which tormented and troubled and dangerous individuals on the margins of our society can easily obtain weapons of human mass destruction.   These realities are not relevant and cannot be discussed. And in today’s political climate to even MENTION this makes one a pariah, or a “liberal”, or a “communist”.

 I have been in the Security and Prevention profession for over 35 years, so I can easily dismiss the attacks from gun rights advocates and zealots.  And in fairness,  I have found many gun rights people to be in fact reasoned and decent and willing to engage in reasoned discourse.

What troubles me, and why I wanted to write directly to YOU,  is that the vast majority of professionals in the Security profession totally bypass, ignore and in fact, minimize the reality and tragedy that is our national gun slaughter.   As a profession,  we have done nothing to challenge these trends,  or address them, or at the very least,  debate the current flood of laws designed to turn American work places into armed camps.  

And this in my view is nothing less than a tragedy.



Does Being on TV Make Us Better World Citizens?

Does Being on TV Make Us Better World Citizens?

To quote the character in the 1995 movie, “To Die For” — “You’re not really anybody in America unless you’re on TV… ’cause what’s the point of doing anything worthwhile if there’s nobody watching?  So when people are watching, it makes you a better person.” So if everybody was on TV all the time, everybody would be better people.

A minor statistic – that the recent tsunami in #Japan got CNN its highest ratings since Obama’s inauguration!   What can beat the reality of earthquakes and rising water, followed almost immediately by nuclear power plants with seawater cannons blasting?   And then add the airstrikes over #Libya – all delivered in breathtaking color.

Does showing these images on TV make people more sympathetic to the plight of the rest of the world?   I think it probably does – and that it does make us better people for caring.

The social media has contributed greatly to this – working hand in glove with TV – expanding coverage to new audiences and flashing breaking news around the world.  The immediacy of Twitter and email make us seem empathetic because we are sending the news out to our social circles. 

The middle east uprisings are possible not because of just the media, but because people around the world weigh in and give political support to the protesters.  They know the world is watching and because they know they are not alone anymore, they are empowered to stick with their protests. 

And look at the payoff – the rebels in Libya make their case and the world comes to their aid.  Obviously there are other critical factors at play here, but the TV makes it all possible. 

Just five years ago, people were wondering when the One World concept would finally catch hold and we would collectively realize that we’re really all people on this tiny planet – Pax Humana, aka World Peace. 

It looks like that day has come – not because of highideals or harmonic convergence, or universal values, but because we can tweet pictures to our friends about other people on the other side of the world.  This is true reality TV and it’s going to be a game changer for businesses and governments everywhere.




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